CalendaFX – Trade the Economic Calendar, Trade The News.

Complete Market Guide

How News Events Affect Currencies, Metals, Indices & Futures

Every major economic release creates ripple effects across all asset classes simultaneously — not just currency pairs. Understanding how NFP moves Gold, how CPI crushes the Nasdaq, and how a rate decision reshapes bond futures gives you a significant edge. Tap any event below to see the full picture.

1 Interest Rate Decisions (Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ) Very High ▼

A rate hike makes a currency more attractive to hold — capital flows in and the currency strengthens. A cut does the opposite. But the press conference guidance matters more than the rate itself: "higher for longer" vs "one and done" can move markets sharply. The initial rate decision is usually priced in. The surprise is in the language.

Currencies (Forex)

EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · USD/CHF

The directly affected currency sees large moves. All USD pairs reprice simultaneously when the Fed speaks. EUR pairs react to ECB. GBP to BOE.

✅ Hike / Hawkish: Currency strengthens sharply. USD pairs: EUR/USD drops, USD/JPY rises.

❌ Cut / Dovish: Currency weakens. EUR/USD surges. USD/JPY drops toward support.

Gold & Silver

XAU/USD · XAG/USD

Gold is priced in USD and pays no yield. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding gold — driving prices lower. Cuts are powerfully bullish for gold. A dovish pivot can move gold sharply in a single session.

✅ Hike: Gold drops sharply. Silver follows. Opportunity cost of zero-yield assets rises.

❌ Cut / Pivot: Gold surges sharply. Silver outperforms on risk appetite return.

Stock Indices

S&P 500 · Nasdaq · DAX · FTSE 100

Rate hikes increase borrowing costs and compress PE multiples — negative for growth stocks. Cuts reduce the discount rate on future earnings — powerfully bullish for equities, especially tech-heavy Nasdaq.

✅ Hike: S&P may fall sharply. Nasdaq hit hardest. Banks outperform on wider margins.

❌ Cut / Pivot: Nasdaq rallies sharply. S&P surges. Risk-on rotation into growth stocks.

Bond Futures

US 2yr · US 10yr · US 30yr Treasuries

The entire yield curve reprices immediately. Short-end bonds (2yr) move most — they reflect the near-term rate path. Long-end (30yr) reacts to long-term inflation expectations embedded in the guidance language.

✅ Hike: Bond prices fall, yields rise. 2yr yield typically jumps notably.

❌ Cut: Bond prices surge, yields fall. 2yr yield drops notably. Flight to bonds.

Oil & Energy

WTI Crude · Brent Crude · Natural Gas

Rate hikes strengthen USD (oil is priced in USD) — making oil more expensive for other currencies and suppressing demand. They also signal economic slowdown, reducing energy consumption forecasts.

✅ Hike: Oil may fall sharply/barrel on USD strength and demand concerns.

❌ Cut: Oil gets a modest bid on weaker USD and improved demand outlook.

Equity Futures

S&P Futures · Nasdaq Futures · DAX Futures

Rate decisions at 19:00 GMT come after US cash market close. Futures markets trade 23 hours a day — they absorb the full reaction overnight before cash markets open the next morning.

✅ Hawkish surprise: S&P futures drop overnight, setting up a negative open.

❌ Dovish pivot: Futures rally hard overnight — gap-up open for US equities next day.

⏱️ How long to wait before trading: Do NOT enter in the first 30–60 seconds — the initial move is algorithm-driven and often reverses. Wait for the press conference (30 mins after the statement) to confirm direction. The most reliable entries are during the Q&A session when guidance is clarified. For gold and indices, wait for the first 5-minute candle to close before entering.

2 CPI — Consumer Price Index Very High ▼

CPI tells markets where interest rates are heading. Hot inflation = rates stay high = currency strong, gold weak, equities under pressure. Cool inflation = rate cuts coming = currency weak, gold strong, equities rally. The Core CPI (strips food & energy) is what the Fed actually watches — always check both figures before trading.

Currencies

EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · AUD/USD

USD pairs move sharply. Hot US CPI = USD bullish across all pairs. EUR/USD and GBP/USD drop. USD/JPY and USD/CHF rise. UK CPI moves GBP. Eurozone CPI moves EUR.

✅ Hot CPI (beat): USD surges. EUR/USD drops sharply. Rate cut expectations pushed back.

❌ Cool CPI (miss): USD weakens. EUR/USD rallies. Rate cuts priced in sooner.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold · Silver

Gold's relationship with CPI is nuanced. Initially: hot CPI = gold drops (rate hike fear). But if inflation becomes entrenched over months, gold rallies as a hedge. The short-term reaction is almost always inverse to USD.

✅ Hot CPI: Gold typically drops sharply on rate hike fear and USD strength.

❌ Cool CPI: Gold rallies sharply on rate cut expectations and USD weakness.

Stock Indices

S&P 500 · Nasdaq 100 · Dow Jones

CPI is one of the biggest equity market movers. Hot CPI = "rates higher for longer" = lower PE multiples = stocks fall. Nasdaq (high-growth, rate-sensitive) reacts more violently than the Dow.

✅ Hot CPI: S&P drops sharply. Nasdaq can fall sharply. Banks and energy stocks outperform.

❌ Cool CPI: S&P rallies sharply. Nasdaq surges sharply. Bonds rally simultaneously.

Bond Futures & Yields

US 2yr Yield · US 10yr Yield

CPI directly drives rate expectations, which drive bond yields. Even a small CPI surprise can move the 2yr yield by 8–15 basis points instantly as futures markets reprice the Fed rate path for the next 12 months.

✅ Hot CPI: Yields surge. 2yr jumps notably. Bond prices drop sharply.

❌ Cool CPI: Yields drop. 2yr falls notably. Bond prices rally.

Oil & Energy

WTI · Brent

Energy is stripped from Core CPI but included in headline. High oil prices feed into headline inflation. A CPI miss caused partly by lower energy prices creates a mixed signal — headline cool but core may still be hot.

✅ Hot headline CPI (energy-driven): Oil itself may not move much — check Core separately.

❌ Cool CPI: Weaker USD broadly supportive for oil prices on a risk-on day.

⏱️ How long to wait: Wait 15–30 seconds for both headline AND Core figures to be published simultaneously. Algorithms parse both within seconds — if they diverge (headline beats, core misses), the initial spike often reverses. Never trade only the headline. The most reliable entry is 30–60 seconds after release once the dust settles.

3 NFP — Non-Farm Payrolls Very High ▼

NFP is the most-watched Forex release on the calendar — released the first Friday of every month at 13:30 GMT. It comes alongside three numbers simultaneously: payrolls change, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. All three must be checked before trading. A beat on jobs but a rise in unemployment creates a false spike that traps traders.

Currencies

EUR/USD · GBP/USD · USD/JPY · AUD/USD · USD/CAD

All USD pairs move sharply. Spreads widen in the 30 seconds before release — use pending orders or wait for spreads to normalise (approx 30 seconds after release).

✅ Strong NFP + Falling Unemployment + Rising Wages: USD surges across all pairs. EUR/USD target the next daily support level below.

❌ Weak NFP + Rising Unemployment: USD sells off. EUR/USD and GBP/USD spike sharply higher.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold · Silver

NFP is one of gold's biggest single-day movers. A strong jobs report raises rate expectations — bearish for gold. A weak report raises recession fears and rate cut hopes — powerfully bullish for gold.

✅ Strong NFP: Gold drops sharply. Target the next key support level on the daily chart.

❌ Weak NFP: Gold rallies sharply. Safe haven + rate cut = double catalyst.

US Stock Indices

S&P 500 · Nasdaq · Dow Jones

"Good news is bad news" applies here. A very strong NFP can actually hurt stocks — it means rates stay higher for longer. A weak NFP signals rate cuts ahead, which is good for equity valuations. Context is everything.

✅ Strong NFP (but not too strong): Moderate equity rally on economic confidence. Too strong may trigger a sell-off on rate fear.

❌ Weak NFP: Initial equity sell-off on recession fear, often followed by a rally as rate cut hopes take over within 30–60 mins.

Oil (WTI / Brent)

WTI Crude · Brent Crude

Strong employment signals healthy consumer demand and economic activity — bullish for energy demand. A weak NFP warns of slowing consumption — bearish for oil. The USD reaction also amplifies or dampens the oil move.

✅ Strong NFP: Oil gets a demand-outlook bid. May add to WTI.

❌ Weak NFP: Oil drops on demand fears. USD strength compounds the downside.

Index & Bond Futures

S&P Futures · 10yr Treasury Futures

NFP is released at 13:30 GMT — during US equity market hours. Futures react instantly alongside cash. Bond futures move sharply as the jobs number reprices the Fed rate path for the next 6–12 months.

✅ Strong NFP: Bond futures drop (yields rise). S&P futures may initially spike then fade.

❌ Weak NFP: Bond futures surge as investors price in rate cuts. Equity futures volatile.

⏱️ How long to wait: Wait a minimum of 30–60 seconds after the release. Check all THREE numbers (payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings) before entering any trade. If they're mixed, wait 3–5 minutes for the market to find direction. The most dangerous trade is entering on the initial spike before the full data is parsed. For gold and indices, the 1-minute or 5-minute candle close is your safest entry signal.

4 GDP — Gross Domestic Product Very High ▼

GDP is the total output of an economy. Two consecutive negative quarters = official recession = one of the most significant macro events for all markets. The quarterly Advance estimate is released first and causes the most movement. Preliminary and Final revisions (released over the following two months) have less impact unless they differ significantly.

Currencies

USD · EUR · GBP · AUD · CAD

Strong GDP supports the case for higher rates — bullish for the currency. Negative GDP triggers recession fears and rate cut expectations — currency weakens. Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) are hit hardest by global growth concerns.

✅ Strong GDP: Currency strengthens. sharply move on the release pair.

❌ Negative GDP: Currency weakens. Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD) hit hardest.

Gold (Safe Haven)

XAU/USD · XAG/USD

Recession-territory GDP is gold bullish on two fronts: safe haven demand increases AND rate cuts become more likely. Both factors push gold higher simultaneously.

✅ Strong GDP: Gold mixed — good for economy but USD strength is a headwind.

❌ Negative GDP: Gold rallies — safe haven + rate cut expectations = double positive.

Global Indices

S&P 500 · FTSE · DAX · Nikkei

GDP prints below zero can trigger multi-day equity sell-offs. Historical recessions produce sharply bear markets in equity indices. Even a single negative quarter can cause sharply index drops on the release day.

✅ Strong GDP: Equity indices rally on economic confidence and earnings outlook.

❌ Negative GDP: Broad sell-off. FTSE and DAX can fall sharply on Eurozone/UK weakness.

Oil & Commodities

WTI · Brent · Copper

GDP is the ultimate demand signal for commodities. Recessionary GDP crushes energy and industrial metal demand. Copper — sometimes called "Dr. Copper" for its economic predictive power — moves closely with GDP expectations.

✅ Strong GDP: Oil and copper rally on demand outlook improvement.

❌ Weak GDP: Oil drops sharply/barrel. Copper, iron ore, and industrial metals all fall.

⏱️ How long to wait: GDP is backward-looking — markets often already partially price it in through PMI and spending data released during the quarter. The biggest moves happen when GDP contradicts the prevailing narrative (e.g. everyone expected strength, it came in negative). Wait 1–2 minutes after release. Multi-day swing trades work better than scalping for GDP because the economic narrative takes days to fully unfold.

5 Unemployment Rate & Initial Jobless Claims High ▼

The unemployment rate is released simultaneously with NFP — the divergence between the two numbers is where experienced traders find their edge. A rising unemployment rate even alongside a payrolls beat signals underlying labour market deterioration. Initial Jobless Claims (weekly, Thursday) is a leading indicator for the monthly NFP.

Currencies

USD pairs — all majors

The divergence trade: if NFP beats but unemployment rises, the initial USD spike often reverses within 3–5 minutes. This "fade the spike" setup is one of the most reliable intraday news trades.

✅ Unemployment falls: Confirms NFP strength. USD sustains the rally.

❌ Unemployment rises (with NFP beat): Fade the initial USD spike — the reversal is usually sharply.

Gold & Silver

XAU/USD · XAG/USD

Rising unemployment is gold bullish — it brings forward rate cut expectations. A significant unemployment rate increase can trigger a sustained gold rally over multiple sessions.

✅ Falling unemployment: Gold may drop modestly on reduced rate cut expectations.

❌ Rising unemployment: Gold rally — rate cuts become more likely. Watch sharply,300 and sharply,350 levels.

Stock Indices

S&P 500 · Nasdaq

Rising unemployment is initially bearish for equities (recession fear) but can pivot to bullish if markets decide rate cuts are coming soon. This "bad news is good news" dynamic is common in rate-cut cycles.

✅ Low unemployment: Equity confidence — good for consumer and financial stocks.

❌ Rising unemployment: Short-term sell-off. Monitor for the rate-cut pivot rally 15–30 mins later.

⏱️ How long to wait: For unemployment divergence trades, wait 60–90 seconds after the NFP spike. If unemployment rose while payrolls beat, the fade entry comes as the initial spike exhausts. Set a tight 25-pip stop above the spike high.

6 Retail Sales High ▼

Retail Sales measures consumer spending — which drives 70% of US GDP. Strong retail sales confirm economic health. The Core figure (ex-autos) is more reliable because auto sales are lumpy. Always compare both headline and core before trading.

Currencies

USD pairs (primarily) · GBP (UK Retail Sales)

Strong retail sales = economic confidence = hawkish Fed = USD bullish. Weak sales = slowing economy = rate cuts = USD bearish. UK retail sales moves GBP/USD sharply.

✅ Beat: USD strengthens sharply. Wait for Core figure confirmation before entering.

❌ Miss: USD weakens. EUR/USD target nearest daily resistance above.

Retail & Consumer Stocks

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary

Retail Sales directly impacts consumer discretionary stocks (Amazon, Walmart, Target). A beat lifts retail sector ETFs and consumer stocks. The broader S&P 500 moves sharply on significant surprises.

✅ Strong retail sales: Consumer discretionary stocks rally. S&P gets a modest bid.

❌ Weak retail sales: Retail stocks underperform. S&P may fall sharply.

⏱️ How long to wait: 30–45 seconds. Check headline AND core before entering. A headline beat with a core miss is a classic false signal — fade the initial move.

7 PMI — Purchasing Managers Index High ▼

PMI surveys business managers before hard data arrives — making it a leading indicator for GDP and employment. Above 50 = expansion. Below 50 = contraction. The crossing of the 50 threshold in either direction is the most tradeable signal. Flash PMI (mid-month) is released before the Final PMI and causes the most movement.

Currencies

EUR (Eurozone PMI) · GBP (UK PMI) · USD (ISM)

Eurozone composite PMI below 50 is EUR bearish. UK PMI below 50 puts pressure on GBP. US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI move USD sharply. Services PMI is more impactful than Manufacturing in developed economies.

✅ PMI crosses above 50: Strong signal. Currency rallies sharply.

❌ PMI drops below 50: Contraction signal. Currency weakens sharply.

European Indices

DAX 40 · FTSE 100 · CAC 40

Eurozone and UK PMIs directly affect European equity indices. A eurozone composite PMI below 50 is a meaningful headwind for the DAX. German manufacturing PMI (largest Eurozone economy) has outsized influence.

✅ PMI above 52: DAX and FTSE get a sentiment bid. sharply gains possible.

❌ PMI below 49: DAX and FTSE sell-off. EUR weakness amplifies the move for non-EUR traders.

Oil & Industrial Metals

WTI · Copper · Iron Ore

Manufacturing PMI signals factory activity and raw material demand. Chinese PMI (released monthly) is the single most important PMI for commodity markets — a miss sends copper and iron ore lower immediately.

✅ Strong manufacturing PMI: Copper and oil get a demand-outlook bid.

❌ Weak Chinese PMI: Copper drops sharply. AUD/USD falls sharply. Oil weakens.

⏱️ How long to wait: PMI moves are typically smaller than NFP or CPI. Enter 20–30 seconds after release. The 50 cross-threshold signal is the cleanest entry — it rarely reverses as quickly as the initial CPI/NFP spikes.

8 Consumer Confidence Medium ▼

Consumer confidence surveys how optimistic households are about the economy. It is a leading indicator — confident consumers spend more in the months ahead, lifting retail sales and GDP. Use it to build a narrative for the next high-impact release rather than as a direct trade trigger on its own.

Currencies

USD primarily (CB Confidence · UoM Sentiment)

A significant miss or beat (5+ points) can move USD sharply. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations sub-component is watched by the Fed — if 1-year expectations exceed 4%, it's USD bullish.

✅ Beat: USD gets a mild bid. More meaningful if inflation expectations also rise.

❌ Miss: USD weakens slightly. More important as a cumulative narrative builder.

Consumer Stocks & Indices

S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary

High consumer confidence supports consumer-facing stocks. Retail, leisure, and discretionary sectors outperform when confidence is rising. The broader S&P moves modestly — sharply on significant surprises.

✅ High confidence: Consumer stocks rally. Amazon, Target, retail ETFs outperform.

❌ Low confidence: Consumer sector underperforms. Defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare) bid up.

⏱️ How long to wait: For consumer confidence on its own, use it as context only. It rarely justifies a standalone trade unless it is combined with a corroborating PMI or retail sales data point from earlier in the week.

9 PPI — Producer Price Index Medium ▼

PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level — what producers pay before goods reach consumers. Because rising production costs are passed on within 1–3 months, PPI is a leading indicator for CPI. A hot PPI today typically foreshadows a hot CPI next month. Trade PPI in the direction of the surprise, then use the signal to sharpen your CPI positioning the following day.

Currencies

USD pairs

PPI moves USD sharply on its own. Its real value is as a CPI preview — use a PPI beat to tilt your bias toward a hot CPI the next day, and size up your pre-CPI position accordingly.

✅ Hot PPI: Small USD rally sharply. Increases probability of CPI beat tomorrow.

❌ Cool PPI: Mild USD weakness. Reduces probability of a CPI surprise — adjust bias.

Gold

XAU/USD

A hot PPI is a mild negative for gold in the short term (inflation = rates stay high). But if PPI signals entrenched inflation, gold can rally longer term as a hedge. Short-term moves are typically sharply

✅ Hot PPI: Gold drifts lower sharply Modest headwind from rate expectations.

❌ Cool PPI: Gold gets a small lift. Rate cut narrative improves.

Stock Indices

S&P 500

Rising PPI compresses corporate profit margins when companies can't pass costs on to consumers. This is a secondary negative for equities — watch sector performance: companies with pricing power (consumer staples, energy) outperform when PPI is hot.

✅ Hot PPI: S&P may dip sharply. Margin compression risk for consumer goods stocks.

❌ Cool PPI: S&P gets a mild lift on easing input cost pressures.

⏱️ How long to wait: For PPI trades, enter 20–30 seconds after release. Keep position size at half your normal — save the full size for CPI the following day. The two-day PPI → CPI sequence is the most effective way to use this medium-impact release.

Master the Trading Fundamentals:
The Economic Calendar

Today's Trade Setups

Metals & Oil News

Learn the Fundamentals

News Trading Strategies

How News Events Affect Currencies, Metals, Indices & Futures

Master the Trading Fundamentals:The Economic Calendar

Today's Trade Setups

Metals & Oil News

Learn the Fundamentals

News Trading Strategies

How News Events Affect Currencies, Metals, Indices & Futures

Master the Trading Fundamentals:
The Economic Calendar